Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
9.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8082°N, 122.7721°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 15:37:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
537h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
34.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.69
Predicted M3.69 vs actual M2.0
- 0.69 over limit
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 9.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e317f6e26b46f4691329eaefdf9172de793737e5514abb50a768d11f1246e46d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-38.81--122.77-20260522T1537
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.