Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
11.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2738°N, 119.0904°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 20:44:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
590h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51e315b0b723210e3c6bde929edd1920a318a840a732ea3689d2043d576e5d9a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-39.27--119.09-20260524T2044
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.