Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
8.6 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles West of Mendocino
39.3314°N, 123.9573°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 05:09:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
623h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
60.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.29
Predicted M3.29 vs actual M2.0
- 0.29 over limit
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
69b8a8b32a39713baddd6c933b0b2a49e728f545386bb051ece2b9f2907d1e00
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-39.33--123.96-20260526T0509
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.