Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
6.1 miles East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles East of Silver Springs
39.3707°N, 119.1246°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 02:04:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
379h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
89e01d18d489ec5ba7f16f7cf8c4888d77b9df515528b37d3fb73f22d2b3bc95
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-39.37--119.12-20260516T0204
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.