Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
4.3 miles South-West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles South-West of Weott
40.2755°N, 123.9784°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 03:01:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
284h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 5.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7cb6775f1f70fdb005c34b787bea70f15e276e6dea170234f004f58997710d63
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-40.28--123.98-20260512T0301
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.