Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
5.6 miles South-West of Hollister
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-West of Hollister
36.7874°N, 121.4612°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 18:46:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
588h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
67.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.12
Predicted M3.82 vs actual M2.7
- 0.12 over limit
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b757ef95e05231d73d8b6e37441c3e8eff2e7c44dbe2247a42c29bbda8141de9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-36.79--121.46-20260524T1846
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.