Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
5.4 miles North-West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.4 miles North-West of Santa Cruz
37.0380°N, 122.0867°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 12:45:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
126h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
90.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.41
Predicted M4.01 vs actual M2.6
- 0.41 over limit
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43bd350d00249a03bffb0be462671a247d308688e45ae337be788452d6d87dba
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-37.04--122.09-20260505T1245
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.