Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
74.1 miles South-West of Sea Ranch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
74.1 miles South-West of Sea Ranch
37.7435°N, 124.0252°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 16:01:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
57h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
157.8 km
57.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.87
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 2.2 km vs actual 10.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
45431b7d036bb6f606cd018da00af4079701325af5f82e80c1e4d1949f8a1c65
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-37.74--124.03-20260502T1601
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.