Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.7 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3897°N, 122.6311°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 00:03:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
569h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
38.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.18
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M2.0
- 0.18 over limit
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d9e245f54343edd9be976af0805809ad2ec672f62d68ada70bfa3b1756c3a271
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-38.39--122.63-20260524T0003
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.