Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.5 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3991°N, 122.6767°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 21:12:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
543h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
39.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.06
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.0
- 0.06 over limit
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6515264204ec150cc206e30478cd599264935a07b5577cedfe9aa7e9a4995cd9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-38.40--122.68-20260522T2112
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.