Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
21.2 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.2 miles South-West of Nye
38.4063°N, 115.5919°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 10:15:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
124h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
77.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M3.49 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 3.0 km vs actual 7.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
24ccd0800c0c2665c1d60d2b10bcf583c715ddfda4050c0c963d047b2bfb51a1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-38.41--115.59-20260505T1015
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.