Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7804°N, 122.8073°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 21:20:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
135h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
8.7 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aa1e94af4c4d8880c8c1f20bfdedaa3d0eb710ff219e29e4b7354a426d14af48
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-38.78--122.81-20260505T2120
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.