Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
9.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8082°N, 122.7721°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 02:40:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
1.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.59
Predicted M3.69 vs actual M2.1
- 0.59 over limit
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 9.3 km vs actual 2.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
548464da3d0ef2b2a0e4052fe1b9d3d6cbbe8ce0348b48b87da69813ae06bd0a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-38.81--122.77-20260502T0240
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.