Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
11.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2738°N, 119.0904°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 07:47:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
97h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 9.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b5fb3ef1d65cb0368c53ecd15648771148a8f12f6374d7a0ca258b75f5c0665a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-39.27--119.09-20260504T0747
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.