Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2713°N, 119.0966°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 22:08:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
136h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
316f6b0e997255a57d35848c09ea6a55f00ade0e5517042f5775a19989dc77ff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-39.27--119.10-20260505T2208
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.