Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
6.1 miles East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles East of Silver Springs
39.3707°N, 119.1246°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 21:02:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
278h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e7a4fc4a3f9371345dfe8be3fed14908b089f9ffeb07d024b78c2ae557e233a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230754_pred-39.37--119.12-20260511T2102
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:07:57 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230754_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:52.367086+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.