Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.7 miles South-West of Redlands
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles South-West of Redlands
34.0095°N, 117.2148°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 08:13:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
22.2 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 12.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2aa188c40ca27d0ae3c6fa53a3e97b4b7ab6d7f4a24404ba75f73621da30e394
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-34.01--117.21-20260501T0813
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.