Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
7.8 miles North-East of Edwards
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.8 miles North-East of Edwards
34.9659°N, 117.8098°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 22:07:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
84h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
85.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc6a3a4f69e159e9dabbf3352df77e64194c7146043e2d05cb022a901b80753e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-34.97--117.81-20260503T2207
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.