Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
5.6 miles North-West of Indian Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles North-West of Indian Springs
36.6376°N, 115.7278°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 21:40:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
83h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 9.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0fe830cf4d4f76ab4559a51ff2f2051a63a373785478788aab2336aec6d8d54e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-36.64--115.73-20260503T2140
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.