Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
13.6 miles West of Madera
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.6 miles West of Madera
36.9562°N, 120.3069°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 06:25:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
55761c544b02fd8b24a0b4612d1d0ad15640654203ae9aeed8fc2b46a75ef47f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-36.96--120.31-20260430T0625
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.