Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
13.4 miles South-East of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles South-East of Smith Valley
38.7230°N, 119.1156°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 02:02:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
88h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
40.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ba74b08ccd08e7396cc2af07bd854859dc0cf996fee0a0a13422d578bcddbd82
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-38.72--119.12-20260504T0202
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.