Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
12.0 miles South-East of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.0 miles South-East of Smith Valley
38.7333°N, 119.1385°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 05:37:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.48 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddd00cc711a7fec41241c80633baa2ff3b862a704ae3cdd385c4fdac532ae40b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-38.73--119.14-20260501T0537
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.