Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
23.2 miles North of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.2 miles North of Fernley
39.9306°N, 119.1288°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 19:30:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.72 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94db8b7a4c90f67037bf0dfc85f2eaacfc0848b27a66a735867e61fc8404a6ef
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-39.93--119.13-20260501T1930
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.