Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
10.3 miles South-East of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles South-East of Chester
40.1851°N, 121.1276°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 01:02:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
87h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
181.8 km
81.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
6.7 km
Pred. 0.5 km vs actual 6.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3ae7ed6353a424b8b1e2b72e97c4e83876cd3c181c01a466f3a58a5875f0b52c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-40.19--121.13-20260504T0102
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.