Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
16.6 miles North-West of Hayfork
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.6 miles North-West of Hayfork
40.6840°N, 123.4501°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 10:58:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
25h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
53.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 43.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5746420dc7a2449671ef7bffb0be0a8e140c22bccc0806275cbabe9971e97171
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_024306_pred-40.68--123.45-20260501T1058
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 09:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260430_024306_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:23.843768+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.