Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
9.4 miles North of Cayucos
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles North of Cayucos
35.5811°N, 120.8797°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of June 2026
Jun 14, 2026 12:59:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1081h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
30.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.29
Predicted M4.39 vs actual M2.1
- 1.29 over limit
Depth Error
13.6 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 7.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0b111c7f64cecd749c9c8e1567c1aec6d87622718141879a340854ba16a3aeb0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-35.58--120.88-20260614T1259
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.