Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
3.1 miles East of Strathmore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.1 miles East of Strathmore
36.1515°N, 119.0056°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 01:50:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
542h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
121.4 km
21.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.86 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aa32a9280044a73f8c13507d3906a2a1d50248e5955507ff8836f761eb3565dc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-36.15--119.01-20260523T0150
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.