Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.9 miles South of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South of San Ramon
37.7527°N, 121.9781°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 22:38:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
563h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
181.1 km
81.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M3.07 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.2 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e2db6a84c05fbae94901b3ac4c66ac22ceb1b98f3d69f43b1ea8ace1cb4a005d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-37.75--121.98-20260523T2238
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.