Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.2 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.2 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.4002°N, 116.6374°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 09:28:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
622h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
13.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.13
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.1
- 0.13 over limit
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3716e63e064acfe398726eab1b87b7b5bb398fa68be506c9f39fcf7eb5318830
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-38.40--116.64-20260526T0928
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.