Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
3.3 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3971°N, 122.6899°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 17:50:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1062h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
7.9 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9badf6c7180043596ebf36c298f191c3507cf98252293f9d868c58860cc58084
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-38.40--122.69-20260613T1750
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.