Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
16.1 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.1 miles North-East of Yerington
39.1788°N, 118.9913°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 14:36:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
291h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M3.07 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5c5bbe2853e22fea480229cab5a3fc41a38056f3a2e41ccf151238544d3d55f6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.18--118.99-20260512T1436
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.