Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
11.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2665°N, 119.1177°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 17:47:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
630h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
9.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
42.0 h
6.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M3.88 vs actual M3.7
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 11.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9dbe316d54ac01692701a864073c600bb8240fa0f3d85e216305a333ce9bae78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.27--119.12-20260526T1747
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.