Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
14.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.1 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3013°N, 119.0014°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of May 2026
May 28, 2026 09:11:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
670h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M2.89 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d199ddff6de10f1d33786bc7102e0160207e1409e7a2972df761e7549a5b3cfc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.30--119.00-20260528T0911
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.