Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
9.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3323°N, 119.0819°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 15:05:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
628h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
2.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
44.7 h
8.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.78 vs actual M3.7
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 11.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
229923d49f7bfd7103f4e868e0f0907802e13d229c15e7ed62da08f35faffb9b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.33--119.08-20260526T1505
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.