Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3492°N, 119.1091°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 18:18:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
655h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.67
Predicted M3.03 vs actual M3.7
Depth Error
17.7 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 11.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea78a8dc8472964f648c4e34df442ab3aaba17bbb1a8fcbd14d83ee8106a6cf2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.35--119.11-20260527T1818
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.