Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
2.4 miles South-West of Pinon Hills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.4 miles South-West of Pinon Hills
34.4045°N, 117.6727°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of July 2026
Jul 12, 2026 08:15:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1748h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
99.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.12
Predicted M5.32 vs actual M4.2
- 0.12 over limit
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 10.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8f68bb70637581018d8638a1ce7d5b8c93f7cd9476ced618d893624b8a0f04a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_044822_pred-34.40--117.67-20260712T0815
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:48:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_044822_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:26.655908+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.