Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
11.9 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles West of Weott
40.2875°N, 124.1384°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 18:48:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2503h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
65.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.82
Predicted M4.62 vs actual M2.8
- 0.82 over limit
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9d200d1c6ce481f35c0856b66fe1e2ce2f5ef56f6f383a09e17ef348b3a8c848
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_044822_pred-40.29--124.14-20260812T1848
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:48:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_044822_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:26.655908+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.