Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
4.5 miles North-West of Encinitas
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles North-West of Encinitas
33.0840°N, 117.3460°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 00:04:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M1.91 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 12.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aeb43f1eff3a4f04c072dc0e0bf8ba5612e0bd65bd50206379dfc1878f54a5f5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-33.08--117.35-20260501T0004
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.