Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
3.1 miles North-East of Sebastopol
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.1 miles North-East of Sebastopol
38.4277°N, 122.7775°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 03:33:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 0.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e7c3ce0e6178f4a07bf5ccfa9b53918d822d8872239699bf554d586a409be99
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-38.43--122.78-20260501T0333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.