Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
17.0 miles North-East of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.0 miles North-East of Yerington
39.2121°N, 119.0357°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 20:53:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
54h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.08 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2d9389e96dc7f3cbb0df61cfa5707806f3e31386ff1712f99716900fff4d005a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-39.21--119.04-20260502T2053
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.