Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
25.9 miles South-East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.9 miles South-East of Austin
39.2274°N, 116.7303°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 13:20:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
71h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6987d4c44fdf883fd1e6664d96604a37cc65a0079b103a6766de54eff3a5bc2c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-39.23--116.73-20260503T1320
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.