Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
13.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2515°N, 119.0637°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 13:54:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
71h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.75 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f91b92915cf9105c1f817970ec9ec6f7514095c06d636fdcfd4ba00091c87cb1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-39.25--119.06-20260503T1354
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.