Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
2.7 miles North-East of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles North-East of Portola
39.8338°N, 120.4290°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 00:52:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
130.0 km
30.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M1.94 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 5.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
372f2928790a3b99d953a1aa1cd6045a397b814fc09ba237f70d327f41909878
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-39.83--120.43-20260501T0052
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.