Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
10.0 miles East of Taylorsville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.0 miles East of Taylorsville
40.0330°N, 120.6525°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 14:57:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
23.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
58.7 h
22.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M3.42 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 9.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
883596bd462549e1af73923becc27e5bb6f2923e96ab141a630262edcbd2f2f7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-40.03--120.65-20260430T1457
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.