Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
30.4 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.4 miles South-East of Empire
40.2056°N, 119.0353°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 13:18:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
70h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
17.9 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aad064b7b336b6354cd9094cf1a97538c15efc5c3d556a5c654ab6f75fa4e3cc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_071942_pred-40.21--119.04-20260503T1318
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 14:19:44 PST
Source Batch
20260430_071942_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:27.783599+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.