Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
5.4 miles North of Green Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.4 miles North of Green Valley
34.8063°N, 118.4786°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of May 2026
May 21, 2026 06:24:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
494h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
095c3b4b3cd5b89efaab3106c1b3620b83d2c8a1fb3dadf5a92a990989a568ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-34.81--118.48-20260521T0624
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.