Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
2.3 miles North-West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles North-West of Dublin
37.7279°N, 121.9624°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 22:44:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
535h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
239.9 km
139.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M3.4 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
23.1 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 17.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9435416418b905f68548c25e98ecec6d6e1aca7b16c6cb40284fb23714624655
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-37.73--121.96-20260522T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.