Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2651°N, 119.1064°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 23:17:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
319h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.34
Predicted M3.74 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
48f34ec6b80cbda18118da33dcd32ff181117bb4c964c8e0ee6942ba0738297f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-39.27--119.11-20260513T2317
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.