Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
26.5 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.5 miles West of Mendocino
39.2681°N, 124.2922°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of May 2026
May 28, 2026 15:12:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
671h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
186.7 km
86.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.67
Predicted M3.47 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
19.3 km
Pred. 9.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4bb99d22c9aa74bbda78d3a3f19c2e7f2cb38c3b4bd087c18d5c7ee89aff14f1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-39.27--124.29-20260528T1512
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.