Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
9.6 miles North of San Ardo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles North of San Ardo
36.1565°N, 120.8502°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 17:08:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1032h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.36 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
379272713f91c9fef3a1736117239cdb9eda7d030bdd7c47c4713a88eef2ff3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_092129_pred-36.16--120.85-20260612T1708
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 16:21:33 PST
Source Batch
20260430_092129_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:30.598525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.